We've Got to Change the Primary Process

Incredibly, we're just two weeks away from the first election event of the 2008 season - the Iowa caucuses. Presidential primary campaigning started five weeks after the 2006 election, when the average voter was still nursing their hangovers from the endless TV ads and robocalls from the just ended congressional campaigns. Even with such a long campaign season already behind us, polls show that both parties are essentially in the midst of toss-up races (much to the chagrin of Hillary). With the primaries bunched up the way they are, one event - one small mistake by any candidate that is highlighted and hyped (or over-hyped) by the media - could determine who the Presidential nominees are.

With Presidential campaigning starting so early (23 months before Election Day 2008), does any normal person know (or care) about what's going on? Polls repeatedly show that aside from Hillary, Obama, and Giuliani, well over a quarter of all potential primary voters report ignorance about the other primary candidates or their positions. Aside from political junkies, very few voters outside of Iowa and New Hampshire are yet paying close attention to the primary races. That means that most primary voters outside of party activists will be deciding who to vote for during the next few months based on an avalanche of last minute political advertising and the vagaries of media reports on who has primary momentum and who doesn't. Is this any way to elect our President?

I don't think so, and (more importantly) neither does Karl Rove. He has a great op-ed up at the Wall Street Journal's website that, if his political enemies can suspend their hatred of him for a moment, makes a lot of sense: "The Endless Campaign - Why we need longer primaries--but a shorter process". From the op-ed:

It's too late to do anything about 2008, but Americans deserve better next time. One answer might be to create a series of days on which states across the country could hold their primaries or caucuses. These contest days would be spread out over the winter and spring. Each day would have a mix of states, representing different regions of the country. Rep. Sander Levin (D., Mich.) and Sen. Bill Nelson (D., Fla.) have introduced legislation along these lines. There are also proposals from the state secretaries of state and groups of leaders in both parties. Perhaps a reform structure could be arrived at by the two major parties and their rules, without requiring congressional action.

Longer, earlier and shorter--at least when it comes to selecting our presidential candidates--is not in the country's best interests. The presidential primary mayhem and next year's seemingly endless general election campaign will be compelling evidence for reform.

I'd suggest that Rove's idea be expanded a bit to include "no earlier than" dates for other significant campaign moments. For example, have an official declaration date approximately 14 months prior to a Presidential election. Two months prior to that have a date that officially opens the campaign committee season - beginning on that date (but not prior), candidates can form their campaign committees and begin raising funds. Add to that an official debate season - debates can be held during a period eight weeks prior to the first primary or caucus. Limit the primary debates to 4 per party, televised nationally.

As for the primaries, I'd have sets of primaries along the lines of Rove's suggestion every two weeks starting at the beginning of February of the election year. Iowa and New Hampshire, of course, would always be the first set of primaries. Of the other sets of four primaries each, I'd divide the country into four regions and have one primary (or caucus) from each region, chosen by lottery. The last primary set would take place approximately 4 months prior to Election Day. Have the Party's conventions during the September prior to the election, and have the Presidential Debates during that October.

Let's see how this idea would work during the 2012 Presidential Election Cycle:

7/6/11          Presidential Campaign Committee Day
9/6/11          Presidential Candidate Declaration Day
12/7/11        Start of Primary Debate Season
2/7/12          Primary Group #1 - Iowa and New Hampshire
2/21/12        Primary Group #2
3/6/12          Primary Group #3
3/20/12        Primary Group #4
4/3/12          Primary Group #5
4/17/12        Primary Group #6
5/1/12          Primary Group #7
5/15/12        Primary Group #8
5/29/12        Primary Group #9
6/12/12        Primary Group #10
6/26/12        Primary Group #11
7/10/12        Primary Group #12
Sept. '12        Party Nominating Conventions
Oct. '12         Presidential Debates
11/6/12        Election Day 2012

It looks much simpler than it would eventually be, of course. And this would require intervention by Congress to set up. But at least it's a better process than what we have now...