AP: Forget Everything You Heard About Iran Stopping Its Nuclear Program, Again

There was a huge ruckus at the beginning of December '07 when the intelligence community released an updated National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran that indicated that the Iranians had stopped their nuclear weapons program in 2003 (National Intelligence Team: Iran Stopped Nuclear Weapons Program in 2003). It was a foolish, foolish report - its only real value was to highlight the politicization of the intelligence community. The authors couldn't even find a believable reason for Iran "giving up" its nuclear ambitions at the time they claimed it did! If it were true, the most likely cause of Iran's reticence in 2003 would have been the invasion of Iraq by the United States that same year - the reason why Libya publicly admitted it gave up its WMD programs. But the idiots who wrote the NIE didn't want to give the Bush Administration any bones - so the cause of Iran's sudden 'coming to their senses' was left a mystery.

Many, including myself, didn't buy it. Neither, it appeared, did the Director of National Intelligence, Michael McConnell, who was also the Director of Bill Clinton's National Security Agency (NSA). Two months later, at the beginning of February, McConnell testified under oath in front of Congress that the NIE summary on Iran was both wrong and misleading (U.S. Spy Chief Retreats on Iran Estimate, Iranian Nuclear Rewrite,  Correcting the CIA). That change displeased the Democrats, the Democratic Presidential candidates, and the drive-by-media greatly, so it was promptly buried.

Something occurred yesterday, however, that might prove to be more difficult to ignore.  The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), led by Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, an apologist for the nuclear ambitions of Arab nations and Iran for many years and an avowed hater of Israel, has just released some very troubling documentation on Iran and its nuclear plans: Diplomats: IAEA documents point to possible Iranian focus on atomic weapons after 2003. An excerpt:

A summarized U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, made public late last year, also came to the conclusion that Tehran was conducting atomic weapons work. But it said the Iranians froze such work in 2003.

Asked whether board members were shown information indicating Tehran continued weapons-related activities after that time, Simon Smith, the chief British delegate to the IAEA, said: "Certainly some of the dates ... went beyond 2003."

He did not elaborate. But another diplomat at the presentation, who agreed to discuss the meeting only if not quoted by name, said some of the documentation focused on an Iranian report on nuclear activities that some experts have said could be related to weapons.

She said it was unclear whether the project was being actively worked on in 2004 or the report was a review of past activities. Still, any Iranian focus on nuclear weapons work in 2004 would at least indicate continued interest past the timeframe outlined in the U.S. intelligence estimate.

A senior diplomat who attended the IAEA meeting said that among the material shown was an Iranian video depicting mock-ups of a missile re-entry vehicle. He said IAEA Director General Oli Heinonen suggested the component — which brings missiles back from the stratosphere — was configured in a way that strongly suggests it was meant to carry a nuclear warhead.

Other documentation showed the Iranians experimenting with warheads and missile trajectories where "the height of the burst ... didn’t make sense for conventional warheads," he said.

Smith and the senior diplomat both said the material shown to the board came from a variety of sources, including information gathered by the agency and intelligence provided by member nations.

"The assumption is this was not something that was being thought about or talked about, but the assumption is it was being practically worked on," Smith told reporters.

He said the IAEA presented a "fairly detailed set of illustrations and descriptions of how you would build a nuclear warhead, how you would fit it into a delivery vehicle, how you would expect it to perform."

This evidence, which is not new, directly contradicts both the politicized NIE released in December and a UN report released just last week. In addition, you have to assume that the above article, being from the Associated Press, attempts to spin this story in the most favorable way it could for the Iranians and unfavorable way for the Bush Administration. Notice that the AP only refers to the NIE results from December - they don't even bother to note the major backtracking that McConnell did on that NIE, in essence a correction, earlier this month.

I wonder if Hillary or Obama will mention anything about this during tonight's debate?