Defining Barack Obama and "The Wright Phenomenon"

There's a great article up at The Swamp (the Chicago Tribune's Washington Bureau blog) by Jill Zuckman titled "McCain paints Obama's portrait - Not so pretty picture about judgment and experience". It concerns the McCain campaign's slow and steady efforts to define Barack Obama.

That Obama is a good public speaker is a given. So is the fact that the media's love affair with the Clintons has been eclipsed with their love affair with the Senator from Chicago. It's also a given that the media intends to give Obama the same treatment it gave Bill Clinton in 1992 - ignore the obvious defects, and let him slide through. But I don't think that those early 90s tactics will work this time. The mainstream media doesn't control the message as much as they did even 10 years ago, let alone back when Bill Clinton was running.

I'm going to call what I think is going to happen "The Wright Phenomenon". Reverend Jeremiah Wright and his controversial views were well known to the liberal media and the Left. You have to ignore what Obama has been saying recently about "just" finding out about Wright's opinions. Barack Obama was concerned enough about Wright's views and their potential negative impact on his campaign that he literally hid him away - disinviting Wright from delivering the invocation when Obama declared that he was running for President way back in early 2007, but still appeasing Wright by giving him a seat on one of Obama's many campaign committees. The media silence about Wright was such that Obama thought that a potentially campaign-killing issue was dead and buried, and no friendly media was going to bring it up in 2008. He was wrong - Obama's friendly media was forced to cover it once Wright's opinions got out to everybody independent of the media's message machine.

In short, the videos of Wright's sermons were posted on YouTube, got widespread exposure, and the game was pretty much over. Obama still thought he could manage the controversy by bringing out the usual ammunition in a speech on race that followed Wright's YouTube debut - his critic's 'racism of ignorance', not understanding the "black experience", etc. It didn't work, and Obama was forced to repudiate everything he said in that infamous race speech of March 18th, 2008 - disowning someone he claimed only a month before he could never disown.

This is a pattern that is going to be repeated over and over again this election season. Obama has come a long way by claiming that he is something that he isn't, and it has served him well in the fight against Hillary Clinton. But once you scratch the surface, there is much to legitimately criticize Obama with - his self-described post-racial bipartisan armor has been dented. In fact, those two carefully crafted images of Obama are the easiest to shatter. As for Barack Obama being post-racial, all you have to do is point to his long association with Reverend Wright and black liberation theology. If a white candidate was as involved as Obama with a white Reverend Wright and white liberation theology, that person would be excoriated by the press on a daily basis until he or she went away. As for Obama's "bipartisanship", that's even easier to pierce - name one bipartisan effort Obama has taken part of, let alone originate, in the Senate. You can't, but you can show many instances when he played the partisan game. There's a reason why the National Journal named Obama the most liberal Senator in 2007!

The rest of Obama's mystique is equally vulnerable to the facts. They key is to drag the Obama-supporting press to cover it, as they were forced to do with the Reverend Wright issue. That's why what the McCain team has been doing for the past few months is so important, although their message has gotten a bit lost in the coverage of Obama vs. Clinton. From Zuckman's piece:

"To encourage a country with only rhetoric, rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people, is not a promise of hope," McCain said, alluding to Obama's speaking skills and campaign theme. And in another jab he added, "I do not seek the presidency on the presumption that I am blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need."

...But because of the long, bruising Democratic campaign, McCain has gotten an early jump. Day by day, week by week, McCain has been portraying Obama as inexperienced, self-entitled and effete, a candidate coddled by a loving press corps and lacking the judgment necessary for the highest office in the land.

..."We'll make the case that Barack Obama is a wonderful new voice selling old, discredited ideas, including the most massive tax increase since Walter Mondale ran for president," said Steve Schmidt, a senior McCain adviser. "It's a combination of weakness, not being ready to be president and not being able to deliver on the things he says he will deliver on."

It's a good article, and it also offers insight into how the Obama campaign is going to target McCain. Two main issues that the Democrats are going to focus on - the Iraq War and the economy. As for underlying issues, the Dems are going to work the "McCain is too old" line to death, coupling that with the "if you criticize and/or are against Obama you are racist" meme.

The Iraq War issue will only work with the Democrat's fellow travelers on the Left. And the press, of course. The rest of the country realizes that continually repeating that you had always been against a "mistaken war" is little more than self-aggrandizement at this point - it doesn't matter. The beginning of the war was a long time ago, when Obama was not even in the Senate, and the question now facing us is what the next President would do today - and what the ramifications are to those promised actions. Expect a huge push back from the Right on Iraq targeting Independents and Reagan Democrats - none of whom like to lose wars.

Next issue - the economy. It has tanked - ever since the Democrats took over Congress. And the Dems are about to raise taxes on everyone, and make gas even more expensive. It's important, and not too difficult, to make the Dems own both the economy and high gas prices. It's also not too difficult to tie the Democrats to the sub-prime housing crisis also negatively affecting the economy. You just have to use the old "unintended consequences" argument. Congress, especially the Democrats, have promoted home ownership for all, even the poor and not-so-credit worthy, since 1995. Laws were passed and banks and lending firms were pressured into making loans that were high-risk. As for Wall Street involvement - they had to be involved, because banks needed to syndicate their debt so that they could replenish the funds used to lend to homeowners. This isn't something that the GOP did, or that the Bush Administration is solely responsible for. They merely continued policies that began in the Clinton Administration. Housing works in cycles -a correction was bound to happen. Add sub-prime lending to that equation and the problems are magnified - hence the "crisis".

As for the underlying issues that the Democrats are going to raise - McCain's age and the latent racism of the ignorant electorate - those are easy to effectively combat as well. First, calling into question John McCain's age is going to be viewed by the elderly as an overt attack against them. That's a problem for the Democrats, since the elderly tend to vote - much more so than younger voters. As for the racism issue - I invite the Democrats to accuse Independents and Reagan Democrats of being racist. I'm certain that will attract a lot of votes for Obama! Guilt only works well with one group - liberals. Obama already has those tied up.

So, the story of Election 2008 is going to be all about messaging. If the GOP gets its act together (admittedly a big if), getting the race focused on facts and consequences as opposed to ethereal hope and messianic promises can be accomplished, even with most of the press against the Republicans.

We shall see.