The GOP, As A Functioning National Party, Is Officially Dead
According to the Republican leadership in both the House and the Senate, the GOP as a real, national political party is dead. The party of Ronald Reagan is now, in 2008, just a collection of simple politicians, swimming for their electoral lives.
On Tuesday, a post on American Thinker (Why Doesn't The GOP Leadership Just Resign?) told the tale of the Republican Senate leadership, and their directive to members that it's now every man and woman for themselves. Aside from issues surrounding the war, GOP Senators are free to do - and vote - whatever and however they want. The reason for this? The leadership in the Senate is terrified that the Democrats are going to win a 60+ seat majority, which would allow them to pass whatever they wanted, no matter who wins the Presidency. Left unanswered is the question of how the Senate Minority leadership is going to corral its membership after the election, once Senators get used to acting as independent entities.
In that post, we posited that it wouldn't be long before the House leadership followed suit, despite the best efforts of groups like the Republican Study Committee. Little did we know at the time, but that was happening as we were putting up the post.
The Sun's Russell Berman gives us the bad news in an article Wednesday morning, Boehner Rejects 'Contract With America'.
WASHINGTON — In the 2008 congressional elections, it will be every Republican for himself.
Republicans on Capitol Hill are rejecting a sequel to the successful "Contract With America" campaign that won them the majority in Congress in 1994, a top party official said yesterday.
"There will be no effort to try to nationalize the elections," the House Republican leader, Rep. John Boehner, told reporters at a lunch sponsored by the American Spectator magazine and Americans for Tax Reform. Mr. Boehner faced repeated questions about the party's strategy as it seeks to avoid a second straight round of steep losses forecast this fall.
A suggestion for the Republicans who couldn't come up with at least one message to nationalize this election - try this one: "Look At The Record. Democrats = Blame, Republicans = Solutions!". Sheesh...
Opportunities Not Fully Taken Advantage Of By The GOP
The media likes to refer to this electoral season as the "Year of the Democrats". Republicans have even begun using that term as well. But it's hard to call this the Democrats' year yet, since a real Democratic year would have the Democratic Presidential candidate up consistently by 10, 15, 20 or more points - and the Democratic Congress at the very least out-polling the last Republican Congress, which they defeated. Instead we have the Presidential contest between Barack Obama and John McCain within a few points of each other - occasionally even tied - and the Democratic Congress' approval ratings lower than both the last Republican rating and significantly lower than that of the "lame duck" and media-hated President Bush - and spiraling lower each month.
This should be a time of opportunity for Republicans. The Democrats offered change in 2006 - and they have failed to deliver. Barack Obama, a founder of that failed "change" message used in the last Congressional election, has embraced the same type of "change" as the mantra for his Presidential campaign.
The surge in Iraq succeeded, despite the best efforts of the Democrats led by Barack Obama, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi to "change" that outcome. While the international (and Dem approved) effort by NATO and the UN have failed in Afghanistan, we have just appointed the architect of the success in Iraq to be head of CENTCOM, in order for him to lead the efforts in both Iraq and Afghanistan (and Iran, if needed). General David Petraeus, who the Democrats publicly accused of being a failed liar just a few short months ago (remember "General Betrayus"?), now has a mandate to bring the same sort of security and political progress he achieved in Iraq to Afghanistan. With the help of the American military, which the Democrats have consistently and intentionally delayed funding to and publicly maligned, Petraeus will succeed once again.
On the domestic front, it should be even easier for Republicans. The economy has slowed, there's no doubt about that. But it sank after the Democrats took over Congress! For some more "current Democrats = current bad economy", let's look at some of the reasons for the recent downturn. The sub-prime mortgage meltdown was the result of too many unqualified people getting loans they could not afford, under the Democratic mandate of "home ownership for all, even those with bad credit" started by the Clinton Administration. The lenders that the Democrats are trying to first blame and then bail out, including the biggest two (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), have deep connections to the Democratic Party intelligentsia currently in power. And look at the list of Democrats who were getting special deals on their mortgages from the private company that Barack Obama has referred to as the worst of the predatory lenders, Countrywide - it's a virtual "Who's Who" of Democratic leaders in and out of Congress, many of whom are linked to Obama's campaign.
After Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi promised to lower the price of oil and gasoline after she took over 2006, the prices of both have skyrocketed. As those commodities are also key ingredients in the manufacture and distribution of all kinds of consumer goods, consumer prices have gone up dramatically as well. The American public recognizes that the quickest way to force a drop in the price of oil and gasoline is to drill more domestically now where the oil is, while investing in proven alternatives like nuclear energy for the future. The Republicans should be in a position to clean the Democrats' clock over this issue alone, even with the media against them.
While the mighty nightly news and cable stations are seemingly dedicated to repeating over and over that the economy is terrible and all Americans are financially ruined for life (as they did during Bush 1's re-election effort in 1992), even liberal economists are starting to suggest that we might be in the process of avoiding a recession and achieving higher growth - even though the Democratic nominee for President, Barack Obama, has already stated that in his expert opinion, there is now "little doubt" that we're in one. (While the initial BEA GDP growth numbers for the last quarter are due to be released on July 31st, John Berry of Bloomberg reports that economists are expecting a 2.5% annual growth rate for that quarter - not bad for a recession.)
On taxes, the Republicans should be on even firmer ground. While the media and the Democrats are promoting the traditional election year "class envy" message, Americans seem to recognize that there's a "trickle down" effect with raising tax rates, even if only on the so-called "rich". The public knows that the rich are the producers and the job creators - if Congress and the President makes it more expensive for them, they in turn are going to make it more expensive for the rest of us. That would hurt average Americans even more during a period of economic downturn, yet Barack Obama's rhetoric promises more taxes on the "rich" (who are already paying nearly all of them anyway), and the Democratic Senate passed a budget that allows the Bush tax cuts to expire in 2010, which would result in a huge tax increase for everyone who actually pays federal taxes.
As for jobs, while we still have a jobless rate that's under what economists consider to be full employment (our current rate = 5.5%, full employment = 6%), raising taxes on the job creators and making it more expensive to employ people isn't going to be good for the unemployed, now is it?
What Some of the GOP's National Message Could Have Been
This should be a time that a Republican Party, having learned its lesson from 2006, would be able to approach the American voters with humility, apologize to them for losing its way temporarily, and present them with viable and popular alternatives to the Democrats. Let Al Gore talk about climate change all he wants - with the price of oil skyrocketing, average American consumers know that if we deal with the environment the way the Democrats want, it equals a lot less money in their pockets. Ditto with taxes.
On the mortgage front, it's easy to point out that throughout history, what goes up must come down, at least somewhat. While it's admittedly awful to be a member of the 2.5% of homeowners in foreclosure and the 6% of homeowners that are a month or more behind in payments, that means that there's still 91.5% of the home-owning population that are doing fine. It's reasonable to assume that many more of the voters who both intend to and actually will show up to vote this November are members of the larger 91.5% who are doing all right - and that those people might be a bit resentful if they're going to be forced by the Democrats to bail out the deadbeats. In addition, the current market correction in the price of houses simply means that in the future more people will be able to afford to buy one. As for those people who bought houses that they couldn't afford under the sub-prime program? That program was designed to be for people who couldn't qualify for home ownership under the normal mortgage rules that have been in place (and served us well) for decades. It doesn't take an expert in logical reasoning to tell us that many of those individuals, bad credit risks to begin with, were going to default. No one should be surprised that this has happened. We tried to help, to open up home ownership to more people, but it didn't work.
As for jobs, according to the media and the Democrats we have 'skyrocketing' unemployment. But that's concurrent with the media and the Democrats promoting open borders. Why else would illegals come here except to work? That means that there are jobs out there! Another winning issue for the Republicans. A message example - the Wall Street Journal reports that teenagers are the group with the highest unemployment rate in today's job market (18.1%). That number probably skews the overall unemployment number higher than it should be (as it did in May 2008 , that same skew being also present for poor minorities). Back when I was growing up, we worked mowing lawns, as laborers, on golf courses - doing anything we could to make money so that we could go out and spend it. Today, kids think it's not worth it to work in order to have money - they want to skip that part and only go to the mall. The individuals who fill that labor gap are often illegals. The solution? Protect the border and enforce immigration law. Having no easy access to cheap illegal labor will then cause the companies that use illegals to pay more. Better pay will attract the people who should, and historically have, worked those menial but necessary jobs. Unemployment will decrease. As for more lucrative jobs, while there are a few companies going under here and there (especially in the mortgage sector), check out sites like Monster.com. There are many higher paying jobs out there, just waiting to be filled. Linking the other jobs to the illegal immigration problem should be another no-brainer for the Republicans.
What The GOP Leadership Could Have Predicted, and Should Have Been Ready For
All of the above media-amplified "crises" could have been predicted long ago (along with the media amplification!). We knew that our troops would win in Iraq, as they are going to win again in Afghanistan, if given the right strategy and commanders. We knew that oil was eventually going to go up without more domestic drilling - just not exactly when and by how much. With the passing of the Bush Tax cuts, we knew that they would expire in 2010 - and what the cost would be if they are not renewed. We knew that non-credit worthy borrowers were eventually going to default in large numbers - that's called risk management. We knew that we were going to have a significant housing price correction, since the housing market usually has an eight year cycle (this correction is four years late!). Since the government didn't do what they promised the American public they would do in 1986, trading amnesty for illegals with a pledge to strictly enforce immigration laws, we knew that we'd have a problem on our hands again some day with the illegal issue.
The job of upper level management in any successful business is to plan for the continued success of the business. That's what the current Republican leadership should have been doing all along. While it's hard to predict exactly when an issue will arise, it's not that difficult to predict what issues will arise. A unified, national, coherent political response on these issues should have been prepared and in a filing cabinet somewhere ready to modified to fit current conditions and be released.
But that takes discipline and forethought. And before any plans are put in place, the party has to decide what it's going to stand for - what its ideological foundation is. What we're hearing today from the Republican leadership, with their message of "every man for himself", is that not only do they not have any plans to move forward cohesively, they've allowed the party's ideological foundation to wash away as well. It's hard to get the grassroots enthused and donors donating with messages like that.
What We Must Do This Fall, and a Way Forward for the GOP
So what do we do? Luckily, the Democrats are still Democrats, bereft of workable ideas. The Democratic Leadership Council was once a formidable opponent in the ideas department, but the current batch of Democratic leaders (especially Howard Dean and Obama) have thrown that group under the bus. We still have people who are working hard on the issues so that the party will have a strong intellectual base in the future, at think-tanks such as the Heritage Foundation and AEI; at magazines such as National Review, The Weekly Standard and the American Spectator; and at blogs like American Thinker.
As we have access to ideas that we can cull for the future, we now wait and see what happens this fall, while still participating in the election. Staying at home and not voting is stupid, as is voting for a "protest" candidate like Bob Barr - no matter how much we want to teach the national party a lesson. We tried that game once before, and got Bill Clinton and the Clintonistas for eight years - and they now largely control the drive-by media, attacking Republicans daily. If we're lukewarm about some Republican candidate - such as many conservatives are lukewarm about John McCain - we must still vote for him or her, even if it turns out that we're really just voting against the Democrat. (Notice I said "Republicans", and not "Democrats who pretend to be Republicans", like ex-Senator Lincoln Chafee. A little party-bucking is one thing, Chafee was something altogether different.)
After that, we must demand - and I say the following word holding my nose - change. Not having a national, unifying message during a critical election year while the country is in a war it must win is unforgivable. Fundamental to any such message is ideas and ideology - the party must stand for something. Luckily, we have blueprints, provided to us by Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Newt Gingrich in 1994. Both based their winning campaigns on simple, well thought out and positive messages. While the messages will obviously need updating for 2010, the fact that they need to be well thought out, simple and positive remain the same.
If someone asks what the Republican Party of 2009 and forward stands for, we must be able to respond quickly and simply (no wonkish expositions). If someone brings up an issue and asks what our solution for it is, we must be able to respond in a positive, straightforward, and easily understood manner. And above all we have to stay positive, about ourselves and about the American people. The problem with the Republican Party of 2008 is that it can't do any of the above.
Having said that, neither Ronald Reagan nor Newt Gingrich is going to walk through the door. But we will have charismatic and intelligent national leaders and candidates again. Bobby Jindal, Mike Pense, Paul Ryan, Eric Cantor, Sarah Palin, and even Mitt Romney (although he got destroyed in the press - a plus in my book) quickly come to mind, and there are many more out there, especially in the RSC. We've got to be ready to support them with ideas and money.
In the meantime, we'll see what happens in November. And vote against the Democrats.
The GOP have lost their way under Bush. According to the conservative Heritage Foundation, total federal spending under Bush and his GOP Congress has increased a whopping 60%, after adjusting for inflation. Most of this spending wasn’t for national security. It was for the largest new entitlement since the Great Society (prescription drug benefit), the biggest federal intrusion into the classroom in history (No Child Left Behind), and a drunken orgy of pork barrel spending that gives new meaning to the phrase “waste, fraud, and abuse”.
The neo-commies in the Republican Party don't even pretend to believe in limited government any longer. Their fiscal recklessness has imperiled America’s future. Inflation is escalating to Jimmy Carter levels. The housing market is in the worst condition in 70 years. Gas is $4 a gallon. Banks are failing. More of the same is on the way.
Reaganism is dead in the GOP. They've returned to being the party of Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression. Screw them. They deserve what they will get this November.
Posted by: jwpegler | July 24, 2008 at 10:31 PM